By Seth KRAMPAH
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According to a study conducted by CARISCA (Center for Applied Research and Innovation in Supply Chain – Africa), Ghana’s import volumes are expected to decrease, dropping under 1.5 million tonnes by the year 2030.
In the meantime, exports are anticipated to increase, hitting around 1.2 million tons during this timeframe, indicating a significant change in the nation’s trading patterns.
This research examines the connection between tax policies and port activities in Ghana, with an emphasis on understanding how alterations in tax systems impact port traffic and governmental income.
The trade prediction, derived from recent patterns, indicates contrasting prospects for Ghana’s import and export sectors. Data spanning from 2011 to 2022 demonstrate an overall increase in imported quantities, marked by a significant upturn starting in 2013. Import levels reached their zenith at around two million metric tons in both 2021 and 2022. This peak can be attributed largely to pandemic-driven economic recuperation and increased consumer appetite for products.
Nevertheless, starting from 2023, the perspective becomes more conservative. Forecasts indicate a steady decline, predicting that import levels will fall under 1.5 million tonnes by 2030.
The expected downturn can be linked to several elements: increasing expenses for imports, the removal of the Benchmark Value Discount Policy (BVDP), the ongoing weakness of the Ghanaian cedi relative to key global currencies, and possibly higher domestic output lessening dependence on foreign products.
“This decline in imported goods indicates a change that both governmental bodies and industrial participants need to address. We are moving into an era where Ghana will have to rely more heavily on local capabilities and focus on export-driven approaches,” the report stated.
Conversely, the export forecast presents a brighter perspective. Between 2011 and 2019, export quantities saw consistent growth, hitting approximately one million tonnes by 2019. However, from 2020 to 2022, the trend experienced variations probably due to worldwide supply chain disturbances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the future, we anticipate an upsurge in export activity, particularly in 2024, where volumes are projected to skyrocket dramatically before leveling off in the following years.
The report suggests that the anticipated increase in exports to around 1.2 million tonnes by 2030 might be fueled by stronger worldwide demand along with better domestic manufacturing capacities, according to the available data.
The report warns, however, that this positive trajectory will remain viable solely if Ghana enacts beneficial trade and industrial policies.
“The growth prospects for the export sector are genuine; however, they will not fulfill their complete potential unless there is deliberate investment in infrastructure, trade facilitation, and consistent policies,” the report noted.
The differing trends in imports and exports require adjustments to Ghana’s trade and economic policies. Authorities should leverage the positive prospects for exports while addressing the issues causing the decrease in imports. This involves promoting value-added industries, lowering obstacles to international market access, and ensuring macroeconomic stability to foster investment.
The document noted that this indicates Ghana’s opportunity to leverage its export industry should supportive policies be put into place.
Provided by Syndigate Media Inc. (
Syndigate.info
).
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